Novo warns while Lilly guides up 25%
Also this week: Bayer's asundexian cuts strokes 26%, the White House launches TrumpRx & two upsized US biotech IPOs got away.
ALETH / LIFESCI-BRIEF / 2026-02-06 / NOVO WARNS WHILE LILLY GUIDES UP 25%The Aleth Briefs trace each story to its original source and show how the week unfolded.
The week in five lines:
Novo and Lilly guided in opposite directions.
Pfizer’s Metsera injection beat placebo by up to 12.3%.
Bayer’s asundexian cut strokes 26%.
The White House launched TrumpRx.
Eikon Therapeutics and Veradermics both priced upsized IPOs
Browse by day:
Weekend catch-up: EU CHMP · Lilly’s Pennsylvania plant · US FDA PreCheck
Monday: Novo · Roche-SanegeneBio · Sanofi · GSK· PacBio-ILMN · PMCPA v Sanofi
Tuesday: Pfizer-Metsera data · US funding law
Wednesday: GSK · UK cancer plan · UK-US pharma deal · FTC-Express Scripts
Thursday: TrumpRx · Novo-Hims · Bayer asundexian · biotech IPOs
Story of the week
A day apart, obesity’s two leaders guided in opposite directions and Novo’s shares fell 27% over the week.
On Tuesday Novo Nordisk forecast adj. 2026 sales and operating profit growth of -5% to -13% CER, citing US pricing pressure and most-favoured-nation deals. The company, which opened up weight-loss, guided to a contraction after growing sales 10% in 2025. The shares fell from $59.4 on Friday to $43.3 by end Thursday.
Then, on Wednesday, Eli Lilly forecast 2026 sales of $80-$83bn, c.25% above 2025, saying tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound) volumes more than offset the same US pricing pressure Novo had named. Its Q4 revenue rose 43% to $19.3bn.
Novo Nordisk releases 2026 sales and operating profit outlook · Novo Nordisk
Lilly reports fourth-quarter 2025 results and provides 2026 guidance · Eli Lilly
Weekend catch-up
Europe’s CHMP backed semaglutide as the first GLP-1 for MASH and opened a data-integrity review of Amgen’s Tavneos.
At its January meeting the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) recommended a conditional marketing authorisation for semaglutide (Kayshild) in non-cirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) with moderate-to-advanced fibrosis, the first GLP-1 recommended for the indication in the EU.
It also backed Sanofi’s belumosudil (Rezurock) in chronic graft-versus-host disease after re-examination, and referred Amgen’s Tavneos over data integrity questions.
CHMP meeting highlights, 26-29 January 2026 · European Medicines Agency
Eli Lilly will spend more than $3.5bn on a Pennsylvania plant to make retatrutide and other obesity drugs.
The Lehigh Valley site is the fourth and last of the US factories Lilly promised under its “Lilly in America” programme, and commits capacity to retatrutide, its triple GIP/GLP-1/glucagon agonist, before the drug is approved.
Lilly selects Pennsylvania for its newest injectable medicine · Eli Lilly
The FDA opened its PreCheck pilot to drugmakers building new US manufacturing plants.
The scheme offers earlier engagement and a more predictable review for companies building domestic facilities, part of the onshoring push behind a 2025 executive order.
FDA launches PreCheck pilot program · FDA
Monday 2 February
Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema beat semaglutide in a phase 3 type 2 diabetes trial.
In the 2,728-patient phase 3 REIMAGINE 2 trial, CagriSema (cagrilintide and semaglutide) cut HbA1c by 1.91 percentage points and weight by 14.2% at 68 weeks in patients remaining on treatment, against 1.76 points and 10.2% for semaglutide.
CagriSema superior HbA1c reduction & weight loss in REIMAGINE 2 · Novo Nordisk
Roche paid $200m upfront for global rights to a SanegeneBio RNAi programme.
Genentech takes the licence, worth up to $1.7bn with milestones and tiered royalties, extending Roche’s return to RNA interference after years out of the field. SanegeneBio runs early development before Genentech leads the clinical development.
SanegeneBio announces RNAi licensing collaboration with Genentech · SanegeneBio
Sanofi’s venglustat passed a phase 3 trial in Gauchers but failed in Fabry disease.
In the LEAP2MONO study, the oral glucosylceramide synthase inhibitor beat enzyme replacement therapy on neurological measures in type 3 Gaucher, whose neurological manifestations have no approved treatment, and Sanofi will file globally. In the PERIDOT study in Fabry, it missed the patient-reported primary endpoint.
Venglustat met all primary endpoints in a phase 3 type 3 Gaucher disease study · Sanofi
GSK handed back rights to Wave’s RNA-editing drug for AATD.
Wave regains WVE-006, one of the first RNA-editing candidates to reach patients, and will fund it alone while it asks the FDA about potential accelerated-approval, with feedback expected in mid-2026. Data from the RestorAATion-2 cohort is due in Q1.
Wave announces plans to accelerate regulatory path · Wave Life Sciences
Pacific Biosciences sold its short-read sequencing assets to Illumina for $48m.
PacBio built the short-read line through its Omniome buy but paused it last year to concentrate on long reads. The sale, completed on 30 January, hands the market leader another short-read asset and eliminates a potential competitor.
PacBio completes sale of short-read sequencing assets · Pacific Biosciences
The UK PMCPA ruled Sanofi breached industry code over Pfizer RSV claims.
The Prescription Medicines Code of Practice Authority found Sanofi’s claim that its antibody Beyfortus was more effective than Pfizer’s RSV vaccine Abrysvo was unsubstantiated, and that comments amounted to advertising a prescription medicine.
Case ruled in breach of Clause 2 · PMCPA
Tuesday 3 February
Pfizer’s obesity injection from its Metsera deal beat placebo by 12.3%.
In the ongoing 64-week VESPER-3 phase 2b maintenance study, the ultra-long-acting GLP-1 MET-097i produced placebo-adjusted weight loss of 10% and 12.3% at week 28 in patients remaining on treatment on the two doses that will go into phase 3. It is the first real read on the $10bn Metsera acquisition.
Pfizer’s ultra-long-acting injectable GLP-1 RA shows robust weight loss · Pfizer
Trump signed a $1.2tn spending law that ended the federal shutdown.
The Act carries drug provisions the industry has been tracking: a revived rare paediatric disease priority-review voucher programme, reauthorised to 2029, and new Medicare pharmacy-benefit-manager transparency rules. The House passed it 217-214.
H.R. 7148, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026, signed · The White House
Wednesday 4 February
GSK guided to slower growth in 2026 in Luke Miels’ first outlook as CEO.
Turnover is forecast up 3-5% this year, down on 2025, while GSK held to its target of sales above £40bn by 2031 as its top-selling HIV drugs approach patent expiry. Miels used his first results as CEO to press a more product-focused, launch-led strategy.
FY 2025 results announcement · GSK
England set out a national cancer plan targeting 75% five-year survival.
The National Cancer Plan for England commits to three in four people diagnosed from 2035 surviving at least five years, which the government puts at about 320,000 additional lives, on the back of earlier diagnosis and faster treatment. It pledges £2.3bn for 9.5 million more diagnostic tests in community centres open 12 hours/day.
National Cancer Plan for England · Department of Health and Social Care
The UK’s pharma trade deal with the US will cost the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) about £1bn over the current Spending Review period.
In a letter to the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, Lord Vallance said the cost will be funded through allocations made to DHSC at the Spending Review, with front-line services protected. DHSC/NHS/NICE ran the analysis.
Cost of UK-US pharma deal will be met by DHSC, minister confirms · SIT Committee
The FTC accepted Express Scripts consent agreement to settle insulin-price case.
Under the proposed order, Express Scripts would stop favouring high-list-price drugs where cheaper equivalents exist and would delink its pay from the rebates it negotiates. Changes the FTC estimates would cut patients’ out-of-pocket costs by up to $7bn over ten years. The case accused the largest PBM of inflating insulin list prices.
Caremark Rx, Zinc Health Services, et al., In the Matter of (Insulin) · FTC
Thursday 5 February
The White House launched TrumpRx, its direct-to-consumer drug site.
President Trump unveiled TrumpRx.gov, listing about 40 medicines at the cash prices manufacturers agreed under his most-favoured-nation deals. The site does not sell drugs but routes patients to each company’s own platform or discount coupons. How much insured patients gain is unclear, since their copays often sit below the cash price.
Fact sheet: President Trump launches TrumpRx.gov · The White House
Hims & Hers launched a compounded semaglutide pill at $49 for the first month, and Novo Nordisk said it would take legal action.
Hims began selling a compounded semaglutide tablet at $49 for the first month of a five-month plan, with the remaining months at $99, undercutting the branded oral Wegovy. Hims says the product uses a different formulation and delivery system. Novo called it an unapproved “knockoff” and said that it will take legal action.
H & H expands weight loss portfolio with compounded semaglutide · Hims & Hers
Novo Nordisk’s statement on the Hims compounded pill · Novo Nordisk
Bayer’s asundexian cut recurrent strokes by 26% in phase 3.
In the >12,300-patient OCEANIC-STROKE trial the oral Factor XIa inhibitor asundexian reduced ischaemic stroke by 26% after a non-cardioembolic stroke or high-risk transient ischaemic attack, with no rise in major bleeding versus placebo. Bayer described it as the first phase 3 of a Factor XIa inhibitor to be completed successfully.
Asundexian after a non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke · Bayer
Eikon Therapeutics and Veradermics both priced upsized IPOs.
Eikon, led by Merck & Co veterans and built around super-resolution microscopy, priced 21.18m shares at $18 to list on Nasdaq, for gross proceeds of c.$381m. Hair-loss specialist Veradermics priced a $256.3m NYSE IPO at $17 on 3 February.
Eikon Therapeutics announces pricing of upsized IPO · Eikon Therapeutics
Veradermics announces pricing of upsized IPO · Veradermics
ALETH · OPEN ACCESS RESEARCH